Are the US 2020 presidential elections that important? (written before the election)
The US presidential elections occur every 4 years (with the exception of mid-term elections) which proceed after around a year of campaigning. This cycle has repeated itself since the twenty-second amendment to the United states Constitution was passed, and will likely continue for the foreseeable future. This is one reason as to why the 2020 US presidential elections are no different compared to all the other US elections passed since George Washington was elected in 1752. However from another perspective, 2020 as a year in general can be seen as abnormal in many cases; especially due to the current COVID-19 pandemic which is the first of its kind in the Western part of the world, excluding the Spanish flu in 1918, and has been the cause for many economic and health implications. This has and will continue to have an effect on the US as a whole and especially the elections which are due to take place on November 3rd. Throughout this essay, we will explore the different factors affecting the 2020 elections and why it could make these elections important.
“Since 1932, an incumbent US president has never failed to win re-election unless a recession has occurred during their time in office” This was stated by J.P Morgan’s Maria Paola Toschi. The reason why this quote is so applicable in this situation is that currently the US are going through a recession as their GDP has fallen for the second quarter this year as specified by the US bureau of economic analysis (https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update). In the first quarter it fell by 5% and by 31.4% in the second quarter (percentage change from preceding quarter). If the third quarter follows suit then it is likely an economic depression will occur. Furthermore, official unemployment rate hit 14.7% (20 million Americans) in April (CNBC) this is its highest rate since the Great depression where unemployment rates hit 25.6%)This makes the upcoming elections more vital as the president elected will have to revive the economy, provide a options/a scheme for the unemployed (e.g the furlough scheme Chancellor Rishi Sunak has implemented in the UK) and lead the country out if its economic situation as well as tackle other issues which will be further explored in this essay.
Yet another problem that the pandemic has left in its wake is 205,859 deaths (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) and over 40,000 new cases each day. This increases the importance of the upcoming elections as the candidate elected will have to configure a plan to help protect the US population from the coronavirus. With the population suffering from the pandemic medically ad economically, will they be able to afford suitable healthcare? Could this lead to the return of Obamacare? These are some questions that have developed following the recent pandemic.
In addition to that, global warming has had a large impact on the US, with rising eustatic sea levels, and ocean temperatures rising, this has made it easier for tropical storms and hurricanes to occur, such as hurricane Matthew (2016) which have devastating effects. Additionally, this causes social unrest and divided opinions among the general population. Another example of global warming is the wildfires a multitude of states have suffered from; over 6,609,880.1 acres of land are has been destroyed, causing a total cost in excess of $1.7 billion and has also lead to 37 deaths and over 7,500 buildings being destroyed as a result of the wildfires.
Furthermore, another pressing issue that the newly elected president will have to face is the systematic racism and civil injustice, partly caused by police brutality. These faults in the American culture were shown in the recent “Black lives matter” movement after the death of a supposedly innocent black man — George Floyd. This compelling issues has motivated many riots all over the US, and got to a point where mass looting occurred in shops, and stores were burned. This has shown to be one of the central issues the next president in office will have to tackle, as these have been compared to the race riots of 1968 by the likes of the Washington post and national geographic.
However, looking from the other perspective, a reason why the 2020 elections aren’t too important comes down the core voting system itself. At the moment, the current voting system used in the US and other democracies such as the United Kingdom is the ‘First past the post’ system. This is essentially a two part system where voting for any political party other than the two major parties (In the US: republican and democratic) might as well be rendered useless. Thus, this causes people not to vote for who they want, but the party they disagree with the least. With only two major parties in play, this ca lead to a lack of diversity in the candidates and minimal adaptation for the core ideas of the party itself. For example, there is still yet to be a female president and out of 45 previous presidents, there has only been one who hasn’t been a middle aged white male (Barack Obama). There is however a solution, which comes in the form of a different voting system altogether. This potential alternative that could resolve this issue is the ‘Single transferable vote’. The effect of this would produce a different more varied array of political parties and a more representative republic. This voting system relies on people listing the candidates in order of preference rather than voting on just a single candidate. After a lengthy process, multiple candidates would be elected. This would more closely approach proportional representation and would create a more sophisticated link between a constituency and its representative.
In conclusion, the 2020 US presidential elections are vital, as whoever is elected to be the next president will have several major tasks to fulfil, including: leading America out of an economic recession, protecting the population from COVID-19, increasing pressure from climate change/global warming, systematic racism and civil injustice. Looking from a different perspective shows us that the 2020 elections are not important, for various reasons, of which the core voting system in itself can be seen as a major flaw in the process. Additionally, the first televised presidential debate of 2020 between Joe Biden (Democratic party) and the current president, Donald Trump (Republican), took place recently and as stated by the Financial Times’ Lauren Fedor via their podcast, she described it as “chaotic” and “unlike any presidential debate in modern US history” . The debate involved the current president talking over the democrat representative constantly and Biden even telling the president to “shut up”. These examples show that these elections don’t matter as much as they should, as they would rather talk about their personal affairs and issues rather than the population of their country.
